Will GIC rates keep going up in 2024?

Because of these rate hikes, the rates of interest accessible on guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) have risen as nicely—resulting in renewed curiosity from savers and traders. In reality, over the previous 12 months, the typical one-year Canadian GIC charge has shot up from 2% to 4.90%. Because of this move-up in charges, even market-linked GICs—which supply a decrease assured rate of interest due to greater potential good points linked to the inventory market—are providing a minimal assured charge over 2%, as of mid-December 2023.

How excessive will GIC rates of interest go?

The rates of interest you pay on numerous forms of debt, like a mortgage or a line of credit score, relies upon primarily on the benchmark charge set by the BoC. This, in flip, relies on the prevailing charge of inflation. Merely put, the upper inflation is in Canada, the upper the BoC’s benchmark charge, and the upper the rate of interest you pay in your loans. On the intense facet, a high-rate atmosphere additionally affords excessive GIC rates of interest—a boon for Canadian traders.

If you purchase a GIC, you lend cash to a financial institution or different GIC issuer in trade for a assured quantity of curiosity on the finish of an agreed-upon interval (akin to one, two or 5 years).

We are able to’t predict future rates of interest, however for now, listed here are some rates of interest you may get on long-term non-redeemable GICs at Scotiabank as of mid-December 2023.

Time period	Rate of interest
1-year	5%
2-year	4.3%
3-year	4.1%
4-year	4.45%
5-year	4.35%

Charges are supplied for data functions solely and are topic to alter at any time.

It’s notoriously tough to pinpoint exactly the place rates of interest will go, however we will count on that GIC charges will stay comparatively excessive so long as inflation persists in Canada. Whereas inflation is down from the scary heights of 8% in June 2022, it’s nonetheless above the BoC’s goal charge of two%. So, charges might stay flat till we see important cooling within the Canadian financial system. Which means that whereas GIC charges might not spike additional, the present charges might persist for some time.

GIC vs. high-interest financial savings account (HISA)

Simply because the charges for GICs are up, so are these provided on high-interest savings accounts (HISAs). Because of this, Canadians are exploring HISAs and drawing comparisons between these and GICs to find out the higher funding. Whereas a HISA could also be extra versatile than a GIC, in case you’re on the lookout for greater assured charges of return, GICs may very well be the way in which to go. For instance, as of early December 2023, cash held in a Scotiabank HISA for 360 days will give you 2.55% to 2.65%.

	HISA	Cashable GIC	Non-redeemable GIC
Time period	360 days	1 yr	1 yr
Rate of interest	2.55% to 2.65%	2.85%	5%

Charges are supplied for data functions solely and are topic to alter at any time.

Selecting a GIC

When you’re contemplating investing in a GIC, listed here are the assorted sorts on supply:

Non-redeemable GICs: You purchase a GIC for a set interval (known as the “time period”), with a hard and fast and assured annual rate of interest. On the finish of the time period, you get your principal again, together with the curiosity earned. These GICs can’t be cashed in prematurely.
Cashable GICs: Not like non-redeemable GICs, cashable GICs will be cashed in prematurely—earlier than the time period of the GIC is full. You could maintain this GIC for a minimum of 30 days, and you may preserve the curiosity earned as much as the date you redeem it.
Personable redeemable GICs: At Scotiabank, these GICs are presently accessible for a two-year time period. They provide a better charge of curiosity than a cashable GIC, and they are often redeemed early, both partially or totally.
Market-linked GICs: Market-linked GICs supply traders the protection of conventional GICs and the potential to earn greater returns linked to the inventory market. Like a standard GIC, your principal is protected, and also you get a minimal assured rate of interest (although it’s usually decrease than for different GIC sorts). Moreover, the GIC is linked to a significant U.S. or Canadian inventory market index—such because the S&P 500 or the S&P/TSX 60. For instance, if the index rises 8%, you’ll get 8% in your GIC as an alternative of the minimal assured charge of about 2.4%.